A peek at sf writers peeking at the future

Several sf writers advise us on predicting the future, in this fun, short CIO.com article.

Larry Niven:

Look for the goals humankind will never give up. Instant travel, instant education, longevity. Then try to guess when it will appear and what it will look like.

Pay close attention to parasite control. There is always someone who wants the money for something else.

You're obliged to predict not just the automobile but the traffic jam and the stranglehold on gas prices.

Nobody invents anything unless there is at least the illusion of a profit.

Robert Sawyer:

The world is like a person: It doesn't change as it gets older. Rather, it simply becomes more obviously what it always was. People always liked having phones and portable music, but most people never wanted to lug a camera, or an ebook reader, or a PDA around. The future is adding functionality to those things we've already admitted into our lives, not trying to convince people they need new categories of things; the iPhone—the all-in-one device that is, first and foremost, something familiar—is the correct paradigm.

Nancy Kress:

Study the cutting edge of the specific field. Create wild cards.

Comments

[peter naegele]

Reminds me of these:

I must confess that my imagination refuses to see any sort of submarine doing anything but suffocating its crew and floundering at sea.

— HG Wells, in 1901.

We will never make a 32 bit operating system.

- Bill Gates in 1992